I've been playing the Electoral College Map countless times, and every time I arrive at the same conclusion: McCain will win. It will be really, really close, but McCain and Palin will win. It may even be closer than I've called it, but they will win. I know, call me crazy, but that's my story and I'm sticking to it. Here's why.
The West: We know that Obama/Biden will carry California, Oregon, and Washington.
The Northeast: The Northeast is also solidly blue, with New Hampshire as the possible exception. But let's give Obama/Biden New Hampshire, anyway.
The Heartland: The vast majority of the country (geographically) will vote Republican, from Nevada to North Carolina and from North Dakota to Texas. While Nevada might be a close call, particularly with the influx of Californian transplants, Bush won Nevada both times and it looks to be heading McCain/Palin's direction now.
The Great Lakes: This region looks to go to Obama and Biden. Let's give them Minnesota, Iowa, Illinois, Wisconsin and Michigan, though Iowa will be close.
The South: Obama and Biden simply don't have a shot here. This is the Bible Belt and Obama's views run so far afield here that I can't imagine this region turning blue, in whole or in part. (Then again, what do I know? This is my first time prognosticating.)
CLOSE CALLS...
Colorado: Obama has made a huge attempt in this state, the location of this year's Democratic National Convention. But while Denver and Boulder may be navy blue, don't forget that Colorado is the home of the Air Force Academy as well as Focus on the Family. Bush won by a healthy margin in 2004. The latest polls show a trend in McCain's direction and I think Colorado will go Republican, though it will be tight.
Florida: Northern Florida is deeply pro-military and pro-McCain/Palin. Southern Florida tends towards the left. But there has been no evidence of Obama/Biden pulling away in Florida. To me, this is a really good sign for McCain and Palin because they have not invested nearly as much money as have their opponents. As always, Florida will be close but I'm giving this to McCain. Call it a hunch. We'll see!
Missouri: Bush won solidly both times and there's no evidence of any Obama/Biden momentum here. I'm thinking Missouri will remain red, though by a small margin.
New Mexico: I give this one to Obama, because this state has turned dramatically left in the last few years, with Bill Richardson as evidence of this.
Ohio: As always, Ohio will be a nailbiter. Bush won in 2000 and 2004, though narrowly both times. Again, there is no recent strong movement to the left here. Even if Obama and Biden get Ohio, they would also have to get Florida. Otherwise, they would have to nab a few states that went Bush's way in 2000 and 2004.
Pennsylvania: Ah yes, the "bitter" Pennsylvanians "clinging to guns and religion." Despite Obama's blunder in insulting them at a dinner in San Francisco, Philadelphia may still carry him and Biden over the top. I think McCain and Palin have a realistic shot at getting this one, but as the map linked above indicates, PA has gone blue in the past four elections. This is not a Republican year, so I'm thinking this stays blue this time around as well.
Virginia: Though northern VA has become more liberal over the years, the state overall has still voted blue. There's no indication to believe that anything different will happen this time around.
West Virginia: Obama actually thinks this state is in play; why, I have no idea. Hillary mopped the floor with him in the primaries. Polls have McCain/Palin leading by an average of 5.7 points. West Virginia is a done deal.
So there's my prediction! It comes down to Ohio and Florida. Obama has to snag both and I just don't think it's going to happen.
Man, I hope I'm right about all this.
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